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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">btps</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Безопасность техногенных и природных систем</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Safety of Technogenic and Natural Systems</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9129</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Don State Technical University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">btps-143</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ И ЗАЩИТА ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY AND  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ В СИСТЕМЕ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ РЕГИОНА ПРИ ЛИКВИДАЦИИ УГОЛЬНЫХ ШАХТ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>FORECASTING IN THE SYSTEM OF ECOLOGICAL SAFETY OF THE REGION IN THE LIQUIDATION OF COAL MINES</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Молев</surname><given-names>М. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Molev</surname><given-names>M. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Масленников</surname><given-names>С. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Maslennikov</surname><given-names>S. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт сферы обслуживания и предпринимательства (филиал) Донского государственного технического университета</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>The Institute of service sector and entrepreneurship&#13;
(branch)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2017</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>03</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>90</fpage><lpage>106</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Молев М., Масленников С., 2017</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2017</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Молев М., Масленников С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Molev M., Maslennikov S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.bps-journal.ru/jour/article/view/143">https://www.bps-journal.ru/jour/article/view/143</self-uri><abstract><p>Целью работы является описание результатов научных исследований в области обоснования организационно-технических мероприятий при реструктуризации угольной отрасли. Исследуется вопрос прогнозирования экологической безопасности в процессе ликвидации шахт. Доказано, что комфортная экологическая ситуация на исследуемой территории может быть обеспечена при формировании производственной программы, учитывающей результаты комплексного изучения объекта и его взаимосвязи с внешней средой. В качестве научного обоснования программы мероприятий предлагаетсяиспользование системного анализа и прогностики. Авторами установлены основные факторы негативного воздействия на безопасность жизнедеятельности населения и сформулированы требования к прогнозной системе. Изложены сведения о внедрении методологии прогнозирования в практику ликвидационных работ на территории Российского Донбасса. </p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The aim of this work is the description of the results of scientific research in the field of substantiation of organizational-technical measures in restructuring the coal industry. Much attention is focused on the prediction of ecological safety in the process of mines liquidation. It is shown that a comfortableenvironmental situation in the area can be secured by creation of the production program considering the results of a comprehensive study of the object and its interaction with the external environment. As the scientificjustification of the programme of activities the authors propose to use system analysis and prognostication. The authors have determined the main factors of negative impact on lifesafety of the population and requirements for a predictive system. In conclusion they provided the information on the implementation of the forecasting methodology in liquidation works in the Russian Donbass</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>прогнозирование</kwd><kwd>экологическая безопасность</kwd><kwd>ликвидация</kwd><kwd>методология</kwd><kwd>системный анализ</kwd><kwd>синтез</kwd><kwd>мониторинг</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>forecasting</kwd><kwd>environmental safety</kwd><kwd>liquidation</kwd><kwd>methodology</kwd><kwd>system analysis</kwd><kwd>synthesis</kwd><kwd>monitoring</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Молев, М. Д. Основные аспекты методологии проведения геофизических исследований при оценке геоэкологической ситуации в угледобывающих районах / М. Д. 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