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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">btps</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Безопасность техногенных и природных систем</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Safety of Technogenic and Natural Systems</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9129</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Don State Technical University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.23947/2541-9129-2025-9-4-263-283</article-id><article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">BBSFOR</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">btps-507</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ТЕХНОСФЕРНАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>TECHNOSPHERE SAFETY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Статистическое моделирование сульфатостойкости и углеродного следа для оптимизации многокомпонентных цементов</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Statistical Modeling of Sulfate Resistance and Carbon Footprint for Optimization  of Multi-Component Cements</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9860-9230</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Смирнова</surname><given-names>Е. Э.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Smirnova</surname><given-names>E. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Елена Эдуардовна Смирнова, кандидат технических наук, доцент кафедры «Промышленная экология» </p><p>ElibraryID: 438628</p><p>197376,  г. Санкт-Петербург, ул. Профессора Попова, 14, литер А</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Elena E. Smirnova, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Associate Professor of the Department of Industrial Ecology</p><p>ElibraryID: 438628</p><p>14, Professora Popova St., lit. A, St. Petersburg, 197376</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">esmirnovae@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Санкт-Петербургский государственный химико-фармацевтический университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Saint Petersburg State Chemical and Pharmaceutical University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>06</day><month>12</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>9</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>263</fpage><lpage>283</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Смирнова Е.Э., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Смирнова Е.Э.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Smirnova E.E.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.bps-journal.ru/jour/article/view/507">https://www.bps-journal.ru/jour/article/view/507</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. Производство цемента генерирует около 8 % антропогенных выбросов CO2, ежегодные потери от сульфатной коррозии — 2–4 % ВВП [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="cit1">1</xref>]. Исследования подтвердили влияние SiO2 и добавок на сульфатостойкость многокомпонентных цементов (МКЦ), однако нет количественных моделей с высоким SiO2 и единого мнения о действии отдельных добавок. Отсутствие долгосрочных полевых экспериментов препятствует решению проблемы опытным путем. Представленная работа восполняет эти пробелы. Цель исследования — создать прогнозные модели для обоснования оптимального состава МКЦ по сульфатостойкости и экологичности. Задачи: обобщение данных по составам МКЦ, ANOVA1, регрессионный анализ, построение и валидация моделей.</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Источники тематически структурировали и проанализировали. Провели опыты с восемью составами согласно патенту RU 2079458 C1, ГОСТ 310.1.76 и ГОСТ 310.4.81. Выборку сгруппировали по уровням SiO2. Для моделирования зависимости сульфатостойкости и самонапряжения от SiO2 использовали ANOVA и линейную регрессию.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты исследования</title><p>Результаты исследования. Доказана статистическая значимость влияния SiO2 на сульфатостойкость и прочность МКЦ (F = 248,6795, p = 3,5612e-25). Регрессионная модель (Sr = 6,2644 + 0,08 ∙ SiO2, R2 = 0,983) демонстрирует линейную зависимость сульфатостойкости (8,04–9,62 усл. ед.) от содержания SiO2 (21–44 %). При SiO2 &gt; 22 % следует добавлять пуццоланы для компенсации снижения прочности на ранних стадиях твердения. Прочность на сжатие — 35,0–44,0 МПа. Уменьшение C3A до ≤8 % повышает сульфатостойкость. Введение вяжущего 50 % гранулированного шлака оптимизирует структуру цемента и сокращает углеродный след на 27,5 % (до 388,2 кг CO2/т). Увеличение кремнезема в составе:</p></sec><sec><title>Обсуждение</title><p>Обсуждение. 98,3 % вариации сульфатостойкости объясняется изменениями содержания диоксида кремния. Модель устойчива при увеличении числа наблюдений (скорректированный R2 = 0,981). F-статистика свидетельствует о высокой статистической значимости модели. Доказаны нормальное распределение остатков и высокая точность оценки коэффициентов. Ограничения ГОСТ 22266–2013 для добавок в составе цементов устарели. Новый подход позволит повысить долговечность цемента в сульфатных средах, сократить производственные затраты на 30–50 %, выбросы CO2 — на 27,5 %. Можно выбрать состав бетона в зависимости от экономических или экологических приоритетов.</p></sec><sec><title>Заключение</title><p>Заключение. Содержание SiO2 — ключевой фактор повышения сульфатостойкости. Этот подход создает новую методологическую перспективу, т. к. преодолевает недостатки ГОСТа. Вариации состава шлаков и отсутствие термической активации могут ограничивать воспроизводимость модели, что требует дальнейших исследований.</p></sec><sec><title> </title><p> </p></sec><sec><title>1 От англ</title><p>1 От англ. analysis of variance — дисперсионный анализ.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. Cement production is responsible for approximately 8% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, while annual losses from sulfate corrosion account for 2–4% of the global GDP [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="cit1">1</xref>]. Studies have confirmed the influence of SiO2 and additives on the sulfate resistance of multi-component cements (MCCs). However, there is a lack of high-SiO2 systems, and there is no consensus on the effects of individual additives. The absence of long-term field experiments hinders an empirical solution to this problem. The present study addresses these gaps. The aim of this research is to develop predictive models to substantiate the optimal composition of MCCs based on their sulfate resistance and environmental performance. The tasks include: synthesizing data on MCC compositions, performing ANOVA and regression analysis, and constructing and validating the models.</p></sec><sec><title>Materials and Methods</title><p>Materials and Methods. The data sources were thematically structured and analyzed. Experiments were conducted on eight compositions in accordance with patent RU 2079458 C1 and standards GOST 310.1.76 and GOST 310.4.81. The samples were grouped by SiO2 levels. ANOVA and linear regression were used to model the dependence of sulfate resistance and self-stress on SiO2 content.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. The statistical significance of SiO2 influence on the sulfate resistance and strength of MCCs was proven (F = 248.6795, p = 3.5612e–25). The regression model (Sr = 6.2644 + 0.08 ∙ SiO2, R2 = 0.983) demonstrated a linear dependence of sulfate resistance (ranging from 8.04 to 9.62 conventional units) on SiO2 content (21–44%). For SiO2 content &gt; 22%, the addition of pozzolans was recommended to compensate for reduced strength at early stages of hardening. Compressive strength ranged from 35.0 to 44.0 MPa. The reduction of C3A content to ≤8% enhanced sulfate resistance. The introduction of 50% granulated blast-furnace slag as a binder optimized the cement structure and reduced the carbon footprint by 27.5% (to 388.2 kg CO2/t). An increase in silica in the composition:</p></sec><sec><title>Discussion</title><p>Discussion. The model explains 98.3% of the variance in sulfate resistance through changes in silicon dioxide content. The model remains robust with an increased number of observations, as indicated by the adjusted R2 of 0.981. The F-statistic indicates the high statistical significance of the model. The normal distribution of residuals and the high precision of the coefficient estimates were confirmed. The limitations on additives in cement specified by GOST 22266-2013 are no longer up to date. This new approach will allow for an increase in cement durability in sulfate environments, a reduction in production costs by 30–50%, and a decrease in CO2 emissions by 27.5%. It enables the selection of a concrete composition based on either economic or environmental priorities.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Conclusion. SiO2 content is the key factor in enhancing sulfate resistance. This approach offers a new methodological perspective by overcoming the shortcomings of the GOST standard. Variations in slag composition and the absence of thermal activation may limit the model's reproducibility, necessitating further research.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>углеродный след от цемента</kwd><kwd>сульфатная коррозия</kwd><kwd>оптимальный состав многокомпонентных цементов</kwd><kwd>экологическая безопасность строительства</kwd><kwd>экологическая эффективность многокомпонентных цементов</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>carbon footprint of cement</kwd><kwd>sulfate corrosion</kwd><kwd>optimal composition of multicomponent cements</kwd><kwd>environmental safety of construction</kwd><kwd>environmental efficiency of multicomponent cements</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Barbhuiya S, Kanavaris F, Das BB, Idrees M. 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