Development of parametric criteria for assessing aircraft damage in a collision with birds

Introduction. Taking into account the relevance of aviation incidents that occur as a result of strikes (collisions) with birds entering the flight zone of an aircraft (AV) and a posteriori analysis of these events, the article considers and tests parametric models and criteria for the implementation of accidents.

Problem Statement. Based on the well-known fuzzy parametric model "load p - carrying capacity σ", the problem of finding a possible (fuzzy) measure of damage to the aircraft and (or) the pilot in a collision with birds with varying mass and speed of the bird, as well as the area and duration of contact on impact is posed. The results of its solution are aimed at justifying the ornithological safety of flights by developing proactive actions to scare away and avoid areas of bird congestion both during takeoff and landing, and on the route of the vessel.

Theoretical Part. To describe and evaluate the following events (outcomes): 1) damage; 2) destruction; 3) fall of the aircraft, the well-known mechanical criterion of exceeding the load over the load-bearing capacity was applied. At the same time, the parameters of the load p and the carrying capacity а were described as fuzzy values, which allowed us to find the values of the probability measure (as a subjective probability) of the implementation of outcomes in conditions of even insufficient statistics. The load parameter is represented as amplitude pressure pulse during impact and the collision of birds with an aircraft as a function of calculating the variation of the mass of birds, speed of mutual rapprochement of the bird and the ship, the duration of the impact and the area of contact of the bird with the vessel: p=mv/(Δt∙ζ) (scientific results 1). Based on the data obtained on the values of cores and fuzzy intervals of load capacity, as well as data on the values of cores and fuzzy intervals of the pressure amplitude in the impact, a possible measure of each of the accident outcomes was calculated (scientific result 2).

Conclusion. When a bird strikes with a mass of at least 1 kg and at a mutual speed equal to or greater than 50 m/s, the destruction of the fuselage will occur with a probability measure of 1.0, and when the pilot is exposed to the fuselage fragments, it may hurt him and the ship may fall. With the help of the obtained scientific results, a unified and reliable insurance basis for the ornithological flight risk is achievable.

1. Uroven' stolknoveniy rossiyskikh VS s ptitsami: vo ispolnenie trebovaniy Federal'nykh aviatsionnykh pravil "Podgotovka i vypolnenie poletov v grazhdanskoi aviatsii Rossiiskoi Federatsii". Vved. Ministerstvom transporta Rossiyskoi Federatsii 31 iyulya 2009 g. [Lvel of collisions of Russian aircrafts with birds: in compliance with the requirements of the Federal aviation rules "Preparation and performance of flights in civil aviation of the Russian Federation": [introd. By the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, July 31, 2009]. Industry trade group of aviation ornithology. Available from: http://www.otpugivanie.narod.ru/bird-strike-rate.html (Accessed 10th August 2019). Analitika (In Russ.)

2. Vrag № 1: kak chasto samolety stalkivayutsya s ptitsami i zhivotnymi: analitika [Enemy no. 1: how often planes collide with birds and animals: Analytics]. Novye izvestiya. Available from: https://newizv.ru/article/general/20-08-2019/vrag-1-kak-chasto-samolety-stalkivayutsya-s-ptitsami-i-zhivotnymi (Accessed 15th August 2019). (In Russ.)

3. Yuryev S.S. Upravlenie edinoy sistemoy organizatsii vozdushnogo dvizheniya Rossiyskoy Federatsii v aspekte kontseptsii gosudarstvennykh uslug [Management of the unified air traffic management system of the Russian Federation with the concept of public services] Nauchnyi Vestnik MGTU GA. 2017;170:24-130. (In Russ.)

4. Logvin A.I., Vlasov A.Yu. Organizatsiya vozdushnogo dvizheniya: ucheb. posobie dlya vuzov [Air traffic management: textbook for universities]. Moskva: Publiishing house of MSTU, 2018. 480 p. (In Russ.)

5. Silaeva O.L., Turusov R.A.,. Ilyichev V.D. Raschet sily udara pri stolknovenii samoleta s ptitsei [Calculation of the impact force when an airplane collides with a bird]. Problemy aviatsionnoi ornitologii: Materialy 1-i Vseros. nauch-tekh. konf. [Problems of aviation ornithology: Materials of the 1st all-Russian sci.-techn. conf]. Moscow: Publishing house of the Institute of Ecology and evolution of the RAS, 2009. p. 68-74. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283643930 (Accessed 04th May 2020). (In Russ.)

6. Semyshev S.V. Dinamicheskoe vzaimodeistvie elementov konstruktsii letatel'nogo apparata s ptitsei: dis.... kand. tekhn. nauk [Dynamic interaction of structural elements of an aircraft with a bird. Author's abstract]. Zhukovskiy, 2002. 121 p. Available from: https://www.dissercat.com/content/dinamicheskoe-vzaimodeistvie-elementov-konstruktsii-letatelnogo-apparata-s-ptitsei (Accessed 04th May 2020). (In Russ.)

7. Esipov Yu.V., Samsonov F.A., Cheremisin A.I. Monitoring i otsenka riska sistem "zashchita — ob"ekt — sreda" [Monitoring and risk assessment of "protection — object — environment" systems]. Moscow: LKI, 2013. 138 p. (In Russ.)

8. Esipov Yu.V., Mishenkina Yu.S., Cheremisin A.I. Modeli i pokazateli tekhnosfernoy bezopasnosti [Models and indicators of technosphere safety]. Moscow: INFRA, 2020. 154 p. (In Russ.)

9. Esipov Yu.V., Dzhilyadzhi M.S., Mamatchenko N.S. Razrabotka algoritma rascheta veroyatnostnogo pokazatelya bezopasnosti tekhnicheskoy sistemy "zashchita — ob'ekt — sreda" [Development of calculation algorithm of the probability safety index of the technical system "protection — object — environment"]. Safety of Technogenic and Natural Systems. 2017;1:75-89. (In Russ.)

10. Moroz L.S. Mekhanika i fizika deformatsiy i razrusheniya materialov [Mechanics and physics of deformations and destruction of materials]. Leningrad: Mashinostroenie, 1984. 224 p. (In Russ.)