DEVELOPMENT OF CALCULATION ALGORITHM OF THE PROBABILITY SAFETY INDEX OF THE TECHNICAL SYSTEM "PROTECTION - OBJECT - ENVIRONMENT
Abstract
In the framework of factorial parametric modeling the authors have developed and tested the algorithm for calculating the
probability of incident occurrence on the level which is below one percent in statistically not enough studied technical system "protection — object — environment". The authors produced analytical and calculation table
dependencies of incidents occurrence probability at the level of values from 10-7 in the function from the parametric safety margin in the interval changes from — 5 to + 5. Numerical evaluation of safety indicators on the practically important region of analysis was made: the mathematical expectation of
the impact is "less" or "much less" than the susceptibility, the spread of the given values for parametric safety margin is u ≥ 1. For the option where the impact is "more" or "much more" than the susceptibility the authors
calculated the values of incidents occurrence probability, which may be useful for system forecast with regard to extreme impacts. The authors performed the demonstration of the possible use of the parametric model
"influence — susceptibility" in the range of occurrence of apical outcomes from injury (disease) to a critical one, or death.
About the Authors
Y. V. Esipov
Don State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
M .S. Dzhilyadzhi
Don State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
N .S. Mamatchenko
Don State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Esipov Y., Dzhilyadzhi M., Mamatchenko N. DEVELOPMENT OF CALCULATION ALGORITHM OF THE PROBABILITY SAFETY INDEX OF THE TECHNICAL SYSTEM "PROTECTION - OBJECT - ENVIRONMENT. Safety of Technogenic and Natural Systems. 2017;(1):75-89. (In Russ.)
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