Assessment and Forecasting of Phytosanitary Risks in the Forests of the Irkutsk Region

Introduction. Timber export plays a significant role in the budget of the Irkutsk region. To ensure the continued and sustainable use of forest resources, it is essential to implement preventive measures for forest conservation. One such measure is the analysis of phytosanitary risk, which helps to identify potentially harmful insects and determine the likelihood of their introduction and spread, as well as the potential economic consequences. From the perspective of applied riskology, it is necessary to carry out a predictive assessment, calculate the acceptability of risks and develop methods for managing them, combining economic and monitoring approaches. The aim of the presented work was to assess and predict phytosanitary risks in the Irkutsk region and potential damage to forestry and the economy, as well as to develop measures to reduce them.
Materials and Methods. For this analysis, we used the results of forest surveys conducted in the Irkutsk region in 2021–2023 with the participation of the authors of this article. These surveys included the identification and detection of harmful insects, as well as the determination of their distribution areas according to GOST 34 309–2017 and the methodology approved by the phytosanitary control authority. Additionally, data from official statistics from the Federal Customs Service of Russia for 2021–2023 were used.
Results. We found populations of quarantine pests listed in the Unified List of Quarantine Objects of the Eurasian Economic Union in the forests of Ust-Ilimsky district, such as Monochamus sutor, Monochamus sartor, Monochamus galloprovincialis, Dendrolimus superans. We calculated the phytosanitary risk and assessed the quarantine phytosanitary zone, taking into account the buffer zone.
Discussion and Conclusion. The results of the analysis suggest an unfavorable phytosanitary situation in the studied areas. The high infestation of the detected harmful insects in the Ust-Ilimsky district compared to the reference areas indicates the potential for quarantine zones and losses for loggers. To manage phytosanitary risks, it is important to select options that are effective in reducing the spread of quarantine organisms and minimizing risks to an acceptable level. Sanitary logging with timely removal of wind-damaged and fire-affected trees, as well as the use of pheromone traps and biological products, are environmentally friendly options for managing phytosanitary risks.

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