Relationship between Changes in the Frequency of Thunderstorms, the Number of Forest Fires in the Territory of Yugra, and Air Temperature and Solar Activity during Climate Warming

Introduction. Improving methods for modeling and forecasting changes in the number of forest fires, as well as the frequency of thunderstorms that cause them, is a significant challenge for environmental safety, emergency preparedness, and climatology. This is particularly relevant for regions with a forest landscape, such as the KhantyMansi Autonomous Okrug (Yugra). Domestic and foreign researchers have found that variations in seasonal average air temperatures and solar activity are effective predictors for modeling these processes in many regions. However, the connections between these processes and these factors in Yugra remain understudied, hindering our ability to determine the usefulness of including them in predictive models. The aim of the study is to test the hypothesis that there are significant statistical relationships between changes in the frequency of thunderstorms, the number of forest fires in the territory of Yugra, and variations in average air temperatures near the surface of the atmosphere during the thunderstorm season. The study aims to investigate whether these relationships are significant and increasing during periods of climate warming, as well as to assess the impact of solar activity on these relationships. To achieve this goal, we have analyzed the significance of correlation between the changes in the frequency of thunderstorms over the territory of Ugra and synchronous variations in the number of forest fires occurring here, as well as synchronous and ahead of time variations in the average seasonal air temperatures and solar activity in the period of climate warming. Materials and Methods. The study used observational data on average daily air temperatures, dates of thunderstorms over representative hydrometeorological stations of the studied area, information on changes in average annual solar radiation with a wavelength of 10.7 cm, and information on forest fires and related emergencies in Yugra. The data were obtained from international and Russian climate data banks and systems, as well as official reports from relevant ministries and agencies. The method of assessing the strength of links between processes was multiple correlation analysis. The statistical significance of identified links was assessed using the Student's t-test.

Results. As a result of the study, it was established that the hypothesis put forward was valid. There was the correlation between the changes in the frequency of thunderstorms and the number of forest fires in the territory of Yugra with variations in average air temperatures and solar activity during the thunderstorm season. This trend was significant and increasing. We proved that the correlation of interannual changes in the number of forest fires that occurred in the XXI century in the territory of Yugra per year with synchronous variations in the frequency of thunderstorms over it was significant and intensified. The conditions were identified under which statistical relationships between changes in the frequency of thunderstorms here, as well as variations in average monthly air temperatures and solar activity, were significant and are increasing now. Therefore, when these conditions were met, it was advisable to take into account the factors under consideration during modeling and forecasting of the process under study. 

Discussion and Conclusion. The results obtained fully confirm the existing ideas about the impact of climate change and solar activity on the frequency of thunderstorms in the atmosphere, as well as the features of current climate change in Western Siberia. These connections can be used to predict changes in thunderstorm frequency and forest fire risk, and these predictions should be taken into account when planning activities within the unified state emergency management system.

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